Stock market traders are scared and the patience of world leaders is being tried as headlines are dominated by North Korea news. The world has gotten used to North Korea’s anti-social behavior, but recent acts have many saying the nuclear dictatorship has crossed the line. North Koreans are starving yet the nation has developed nuclear weapons and torpedoed and sank warship from the South last month. After all available evidence implicated North Korea, South Korea responded with a naval exercise on Thursday. North Korea then pulled the plug on a hotline set up between the countries to prevent such flare-ups. Analysts grasping for an explanation believe North Korea’s recent provocations may have something to do with the succession of power.
The North Korea nuclear test
The first North Korea nuclear test in 2006 started painting a picture of a more desperate, impoverished dictatorship that would rather blackmail than borrow money. The Washington Post reports that since President Obama took office, dictator Kim Jong-il has launched missiles, conducted a second North Korea nuclear test and seized a pair of U.S. journalists. In March a North Korean submarine torpedoed and sunk the South Korean warship Cheonan in South Korean waters, killing 46 sailors. After the South cut off aid and commerce with the North this week, upon reviewing evidence implicating the North in the Cheonan sinking, the North suspended all ties with Seoul. It seems likely that the South will seek additional sanctions from the U.N. Security Council, which will provoke more threatening behavior from North Korea.
Cheonan ship sinking
After the Cheonan ship sinking, North Korea news analysts are laying out another theory about the most recent boorish behavior from the Pyongyang regime. The attack may be part of a plan by aging strongman Kim Jong-il , a recent stroke victim, to hand over the reins to his 27-year-old heir. The New York Times reports that the succession theory fits in with the established North Korean behavior patterns. North Korea’s deliberate criminal acts, when viewed through logic, seem to hasten the country’s decline. But not to Kim Jong-il. He needs to create a warlike atmosphere against a foreign enemy to rally public support. As for the Cheonan ship sinking, giving his son credit for planning and ordering a successful naval attack in a disputed sea border with the South boosts Kim Jong-un’s credentials as a “ruthless leader” who can command the military.
North Korea news: one thing for certain
No one ever really knows for certain what is going on with North Korea news. At present the succession theory for North Korea’s recent provocations can only be a guess. CNN contributor Fareed Zakaria said North Korea nuclear tests and other bad behavior could be considered simple blackmail – until the Cheosan sinking. Zakaria added that in the past, there has been considerable tension between South Korea and the United States on how to handle North Korea. Maintaining the status quo may not be possible anymore after the Cheonan sinking. Still confused, but united, South Korea and the U.S. are making it clear that their patience has finally run out.
North Korea stock market fear
North Korea’s stock market influence continued to be felt this week. When the North Korean government ordered its citizens and troops last week to be ready for combat, investors ran for cover. In an interview with MarketWatch about the North Korea stock market issue, Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers, said, “The words of the North Korean leader commanding his troops to be battle-ready are yet another excuse for markets to recoil once again.”
Find more information on this topic:
Washington Post reports
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/26/AR2010052605047_2.html?wprss=rss_world/asia&sid=ST2010052502499
New York Times reports
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/world/asia/28north.html
CNN contributor Fareed Zakaria
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/05/27/zakaria.korea.china/
No comments:
Post a Comment